The only thing for certain about price discovery ahead of us in 2026 is there will be factors impacting various markets that we are currently unaware of. That said, it is still a worthwhile exercise to consider those influences that are known and should be on the radar. A dose of humility reminds us this can never be a complete list.

King corn may be the best place to start given its importance in setting the tone for all feed grain markets and even wheat when it's in abundant supply (as it appears to be now). Demand has been outstanding with records frequently set for use in ethanol production but it's the record-setting export pace that really steals the show and may end up being the top story for 2026.

For years now, a common headline has been about the newest record level of corn production in South America and its bearish impact on prices. But how often have you heard the fact that in the past five years (2021-22 to 2025-26), U.S. corn exports have increased by 18.5 million metric tons (mmt) per year while all the other major exporting countries have seen their combined exports fall by 9.4 mmt per year? That's because the major exporting countries (Argentina, Brazil, Russia, South Africa and Ukraine) have increased their domestic use by a total of 27.8 mmt per year over that five-year span. You don't hear that often mentioned. But it does make it crystal clear why export interest in U.S. corn has been so strong, especially with it being the cheapest option to boot (thanks to the consistently bearish spin).

In fact, according to the U.S. weekly export sales report to Dec. 18 just released, total corn export commitments continue at a remarkable pace with 1.96 billion bushels (bb) already sold, up 31% from last year (that set an annual export pace of 2.858 bb itself) while USDA currently expects an annual increase of only 12%. This year's record pace is also 18% ahead of the previous record set in 2020-21.

But where it could have a dramatic impact on prices is if China starts importing corn from the U.S. unexpectedly. USDA currently predicts their imports will rise to 8 mmt in 2025-26 after collapsing to 1.82 mmt last year from 23.33 mmt in 2023-24. But with their limited imports recently, they have allowed their ending stocks to fall 35.23 mmt in the past two years after being stable for the previous three years. Given the gains seen in the China corn market since the October lows, an unexpectedly large increase in Chinese corn imports should be at the top of the list of factors to watch for in 2026.

For both corn and soybeans, final yield and production estimates for 2025 and the resulting impact on ending stocks estimates should obviously be on the radar as well. Given disease pressures (especially in Iowa), the late-season drought and anecdotal reports of disappointing results, many were surprised by the November yield estimates that came from USDA. If in fact the conservative yield reductions at the time were due to incomplete data thanks to the government shutdown, a much larger cut to final yields could certainly impact prices and set the tone for 2026. They may also heavily influence the soybean/corn price ratio and thus, the planting mix for 2026.

The other elephant in the room for the soybean market is clearly the Chinese purchases and the need for shipments to take place without cancellations (assuming goals are eventually met). With the marketing year lasting until Aug. 31 and relatively tight ending stocks already predicted, the timing of the sales and shipments shouldn't be as big of a market factor as simply ensuring they get done. As such, political tensions between Washington and Beijing will have to be monitored closely for all of 2026 given China's history of canceling purchases out of retribution (over something). And its determination to take back Taiwan could end up being that "something."

Soybean oil will surely play a major role in the direction of the canola market as it always does. And the ongoing saga of support for the biofuel industry as well as exports will need to be on the radar as well. USDA is currently assuming 15.5 billion pounds of soybean oil will be used for biofuel production in 2025-26, up a whopping 32% from the previous year. But 2024-25 proved the lack of clarity and support shown by the new administration can have a significant impact, resulting in a 9.5% decline in use in 2024-25 compared to the previous year. So, progress on that front will surely be a market mover, one way or the other.

That leaves soybean oil exports as the other critical factor to watch there. In December, USDA stuck with its projection that exports will fall from 2.5 billion pounds last year to just 900 million pounds in 2025-26 due to a lack of supply. The problem is, the price must be high enough to discourage exports, and due to the lack of progress on the biofuel front, the price has been anything but. The result has been export sales outperforming again. As of Dec. 18, total soybean oil export commitments already hit 568 million pounds or 63% of the annual total at just 11 weeks into the marketing year. If prices don't increase, a repeat of last year could be seen when the export estimate went from 600 million pounds prior to December (2024), to an eventual 2.5-billion-pound total.

Besides soybean oil, the canola market will be watching closely to see if Prime Minister Carney can improve relations with China enough to get tariffs removed as he has suggested. And as data releases start to get caught up, it will be interesting to see if Europe has emerged as a major importer of Canadian canola. The success story of record crush will also need to be maintained but that one hopefully doesn't offer any surprises to watch out for.

For wheat, the main factor that needs to be on the radar is the narrow premium to corn. With adequate to ample wheat supplies within the U.S. and the world, the most likely reason for a price increase could come from a rally in corn. Historically, Chicago (soft red winter) wheat seldomly trades at less than a $.50/bushel premium to corn as anything less results in it making it into feed rations. It is currently around a $.65/bushel premium, leaving any potential rally in corn likely benefitting wheat as well.

Cattle markets will be focused on the White House. With the fall rhetoric doing nothing meaningful to increase supply or discourage demand, prices are likely to test record highs once again, providing things stay quiet on the political front. With the only real lasting impact from the fall volatility being damage done to the confidence of those needing to increase supply by rebuilding the herd, politics over imports is the most likely factor that could stand in the way of higher prices.

Energy markets will be watching geopolitical instability (currently the Russia/Ukraine war and Venezuela), OPEC+ influences, support at five-year low prices, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve activities with interest in 2026.

From a macro point of view, artificial intelligence (AI) could have a significant impact on markets in 2026 and should be monitored. Besides the potential for it leading to a weak labor market (inspiring reduced interest rates along the way), it was primarily responsible for the significant gains in equity markets in 2025. With many starting to question the net-profit potential of AI and its related energy requirements, a disorderly liquidation of related equities could impact otherwise unrelated markets.

And last, but not least, the naming of the next Federal Reserve chairman and the resulting impact on interest rates, inflation, equity, currency, and precious metal markets should be on everyone's radar for 2026.

I welcome feedback along with any suggestions for future blogs. My daily comments can be found in Plains, Prairies Opening Comments and Plains, Prairies Quick Takes on DTN products.

Mitch Miller can be reached at mitchmiller.dtn@gmail.com

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