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Senate Control Is Up for Grabs 09/08 06:41
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Republicans appeared to have a firm grip on the Senate
heading into the final two years of President Donald Trump's term. But with
less than two months until Election Day, control of the chamber is now up for
grabs.
Democrats have found themselves competing in states that once seemed beyond
their reach as President Donald Trump's slipping approval ratings and voters'
dissatisfaction with the economy create a difficult political environment for
Republicans. But races Democrats once counted on winning have also become more
complicated.
It's a battle that's expected to exceed $3.4 billion in spending across all
races during the midterm campaign. The implications are huge for Trump's agenda
and his ability to fill administration jobs and open court seats for the
remainder of his term, as the Senate is empowered to confirm or block
presidential nominees.
Republicans say it's unlikely for everything to break in Democrats' favor,
but they acknowledge they're facing a difficult landscape. Senate Majority
Leader John Thune told South Dakota's KELOLAND News last week that he does
"worry" about losing the chamber.
"I'm a realist," Thune said. "I don't ever try and sugarcoat things. I think
it's a competitive environment right now."
Democrats face a scrambled path to the majority
Democrats need to net four seats to win the majority. The original path had
been to hold Michigan, Georgia and New Hampshire while winning back
Republican-held seats in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina and Ohio. But things
have changed.
"We now have multiple paths for the majority," Senate Democratic Leader
Chuck Schumer said last month. "We found new states -- Iowa, Texas -- which
people a year ago weren't even paying attention to."
Some of the states where Democrats were feeling most optimistic at the start
of the election cycle, such as Michigan and Maine, have grown murkier.
In Michigan, where there's an open seat this fall, no GOP candidate has won
a Senate race since 1994. But Democrats are struggling to unite behind nominee
Abdul El-Sayed. The favorite of progressives narrowly defeated moderate U.S.
Rep. Haley Stevens in the August primary, and feelings remain raw from a
bruising contest that saw nearly $70 million spent against El-Sayed.
Republicans believe Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate race by fewer than
20,000 votes, has an improved shot against El-Sayed. The Senate Leadership Fund
-- Senate Republicans' spending PAC -- added $6 million to its Michigan
advertising investment after El-Sayed won, bringing their total spending to $51
million, the third-highest total.
Democrats also saw a prime opportunity to finally defeat five-term
Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, where Democratic Vice President Kamala
Harris won more votes than Trump in 2024.
Progressive Graham Platner easily won the nomination in June, but he left
the race the next month over a sexual assault allegation that he denies.
Democratic delegates in late July chose Troy Jackson, a lesser-known former
state legislative leader, to replace him.
Jackson has been forced to play catch-up. Collins and aligned super PACs
have spent almost $80 million so far, according to the ad-tracking firm
AdImpact, while Jackson and Democratic-aligned groups have spent and reserved
close to $45 million since he became the nominee.
As one path narrowed for Democrats, others widened
Democrats increasingly see a real possibility in Texas, a state that has
been an elusive goal for decades, and other GOP-led states including Iowa,
Alaska and Ohio.
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico faces state Attorney General Ken Paxton,
who ousted four-term incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn to win the GOP
nomination. Senate GOP leadership backed Cornyn, seeing him as the stronger
general election candidate.
Paxton has been shadowed for decades by legal and ethical questions,
including indictments for securities fraud, though he was not convicted.
Talarico and allied groups have spent nearly $30 million on advertising
since the May runoff, compared to less than $3 million by pro-Paxton groups.
The political fund associated with Trump last week spent $10 million on TV and
digital ads to help Paxton -- the first major general election investment by
MAGA Inc. for the midterms. Senate GOP leaders had petitioned Trump's political
team to spend some of the more than $400 million it had last month to help
Paxton.
Democrats have also upped their spending in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and North
Carolina, all states currently held by Republicans. The GOP, meanwhile, is
feeling more optimistic about New Hampshire as well as Michigan, while spending
more to defend seats in Iowa and Alaska.
The expanded map has upped the anticipated total spending this cycle.
AdImpact in June projected $3.4 billion in advertising spending on Senate
races, a significant increase from the $2.8 billion the ad spending firm
projected in the fall of 2025.
Why more states are in play than expected
Democrats' path has widened in part because of Trump's slumping job
approval, notably on handling the economy, which was at 32% according to an
AP-NORC poll in July -- down from 40% in March 2025, shortly after he took
office.
Trump's trade policies and the war in Iran, with its corresponding inflated
fuel costs, have added to the economic uncertainty for voters less than two
months before Election Day.
"Things still cost too much. And so we've got to work on that issue,"
Republican Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio told The Associated Press. "We understand
that and we know that's real."
Ohio Sen. Jon Husted heard the concern firsthand at a roundtable last month.
Husted is looking to fend off a comeback from former Sen. Sherrod Brown in
another key matchup for both parties.
During the discussion on housing, one attendee told Husted that costs were
"skyrocketing" in part because of uncertainty around tariffs.
"Uncertainty is the killer to this economy," said Dean Windham, a real
estate developer who previously ran for office as a Republican.
Some Republican Senate candidates have defended Trump's policies while
confronting concerns about their economic impact.
In Michigan, where Trump's tariffs on Canada have become a central issue,
Rogers has backed the president's approach while leaving room for disagreement.
"President Trump is right to put America First -- and tariffs are necessary,
but are not a one-size-fits-all solution," Rogers said in a recent statement.
Republicans believe the math still favors them
Even if Democrats hold every seat they currently control, they would need to
flip at least two seats in states Trump carried by double digits in 2024 to win
the majority.
Republicans are betting that those underlying advantages will matter more as
Election Day approaches -- particularly as Trump and the party turn their
attention toward mobilizing voters who helped return him to the White House.
Trump told reporters last week that he will "be making a lot of stops" in
the last 30 days before the election.
This week, Republicans will hold a midterm convention in Texas, where Trump
is set to speak and top Senate candidates including Rogers and Husted are
expected to attend.
But Republicans acknowledge they have work to do.
"Politics is local," Republican Sen. Mike Rounds of South Dakota said. He
pointed to Trump's decision to import beef, which he said made farmers and
ranchers "feel just like the administration pulled the rug right off from
underneath" them.
"They're hurt," Rounds said. "They feel like they've been let down."
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